


>22.1%

by Odense



Category: Chernobyl (HBO)
Genre: Gen, Smoking, includes works cited
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2019-05-30
Updated: 2019-05-30
Packaged: 2020-03-29 18:03:44
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 471
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/19025131
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/Odense/pseuds/Odense
Summary: Valery has found another problem to worry about. Boris has come to grips with having to worry about him on top of their real jobs, and wishes he would pick one problem at a time.Inspired by Valery chain-smoking alone in his room at the beginning of episode 4."When expressed as cumulative probability rather than annual death rates, the cumulative risk of dying from lung cancer before age 85 y was 22.1% for a male smoker and 11.9% for a female current smoker, in the absence of competing causes of death." (Thun et al)





	>22.1%

**Author's Note:**

> I make no claims at accurately representing historical figures, all characterization is based on the fictionalized account, etc. But also I do have to include some citations, because  
> ┏┓  
> ┃┃╱╲ In this  
> ┃╱╱╲╲ house  
> ╱╱╭╮╲╲ we love  
> ▔▏┗┛▕▔ & appreciate  
> ╱▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔╲  
> *~*~*~*SCIENCE*~*~*~*  
> ╱╱┏┳┓╭╮┏┳┓ ╲╲  
> ▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔

“Valery, hey. Valera!”

Legasov startled, dropping his pack of cigarettes and looking up to see Shcherbina leaning on the table across from him.

“Back with us, cosmonaut?”

“Yes, of course,” he blinked. “I'm sorry, what was the question?”

Instead of answering, Shcherbina frowned and pulled back the other chair to sit. “What's eating you, then? You've been drifting off, spit it out. You don't need to sugarcoat it, I need to know sooner than later so that we can deal with it.”

“Oh, no,” Legasov shook his head. “It's not the plant, just this time, at least.”

“It's not.” It wasn't a question Shcherbina was asking, incredulity clear in his voice instead. “Don't tell me there could be something worse happening than the plant.”

“No, really. It's -” Legasov turned his pack over and pulled out a cigarette. “It's these. You know, we spend so much time and energy worrying about particulate, and then come back and console ourselves in smoke.”

Shcherbina stared at him. “You're not saying our cigarettes are radioactive, now. You can't be, not next to -” he gestured out the little office’s window.

“I'm not,” he shook his head again, quickly. “I'm not becoming that paranoid. It's just a matter of principle, and volatile chemicals.” He paused, tapping the cigarette lightly. “Doesn't it just make you wonder, though. About latency, you know, and cumulative dosage. There are surely studies that have been done; if I had time and a library I would look into it. It’s always been a filthy habit. I’m sure it’s not so hard to find,” he added with an air of bitter nonchalance, and his gaze skittered away from the phone at his side as Shcherbina cleared his throat pointedly.

“Well. Now I’m worrying about it, thank you.” Shcherbina eyed the little box uncomfortably. “But tell you what. If you don't want them, I'll take them off your hands,” he offered, baiting him.

“No, thank you!” Legasov covered the box with one hand, drawing it towards himself protectively. “No, if someone asked me to do this job without these I would know they were beyond mad. A man must have a single vice, at least.”

“I thought as much. You're not going to look into it as well, though? We do need that brain of yours for one thing at a time.”

“Oh, no. Let the doctors have this one. I'm not going to try and keep anyone from their own fun. In any case,” he shrugged, “it’s not like tobacco will give us any real trouble in five years.”

Shcherbina’s mouth was a tight line.

“I'm sorry,” Legasov repeated himself, shoulders hunched. “Boris, I'm-”

“I know.” Shcherbina let out a breath, rubbing at the bridge of his nose. “Go ahead and have that smoke. If they're what carry you through this, so be it.”

**Author's Note:**

> So I'm an american on a prelaw track, with zero (0) certification in history of the USSR, nuclear energy, anything. If I've managed to get something wrong in less than 500 words, please point me right. (space cadet is the english idiom; what's the russian? I feel like cosmonaut gets the point across at least but is there a better turn of phrase?)
> 
> Buuut, I am incapable of not doing any research at all, so I asked the internet about smoking in the ussr, and got Lenin vs tobacco: He apparently hated the stuff and tried restricting smoking in public spaces to bathrooms, to mixed (poor) response. His colleague Semashko of the new Commissariat for Public Health even tried to ban smoking entirely in the early 20s, also to no avail (Starks). Hence Valery's confidence in there existing materials against it.  
> That said, I couldn't find the exact rate of smoking-inspired cancers in the USSR as would've been available in the 1980s. English-language databases fail again! But it certainly doesn't look good - By 1980, an estimated 1,786 cigarettes and papyrosi were consumed per capita (Cooper, table 2 p. 549) and "In 1990, it was estimated that a 35-year-old man in the former Soviet Union had twice the risk of dying from tobacco-related causes before the age of 70 years as a man in the European Union (20% vs 10%)" (Gilmore et al). so like, obviously, smoking is bad, nothing new. It's some sort of bad situation, but this is as close as I could get tonight, so I'll leave off. Sorry, Valery! 
> 
> Works cited:  
> Cooper, Richard. "Smoking in the Soviet Union." British Medical Journal, v.285, 21 Aug 1982: 549-551. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/aed6/f80070a0148217b0b64db2316b0662a663d8.pdf  
> Gilmore, Anna et al. “Prevalence of smoking in 8 countries of the former Soviet Union: results from the living conditions, lifestyles and health study.” American journal of public health vol. 94,12 (2004): 2177-87. doi:10.2105/ajph.94.12.2177 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448609/  
> Starks, Tricia A. “A Revolutionary Attack on Tobacco: Bolshevik Antismoking Campaigns in the 1920s.” American journal of public health vol. 107,11 (2017): 1711-1717. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2017.304048 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5637673/  
> Thun, Michael J et al. “Lung cancer occurrence in never-smokers: an analysis of 13 cohorts and 22 cancer registry studies.” PLoS medicine vol. 5,9 (2008): e185. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050185 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2531137/


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